A sunny start and mild temperatures in the 50s welcomed southeast Wisconsin at the beginning of the week, but rain is expected to move in by Tuesday afternoon. However, things are set to take a turn on Thursday as the area gets hit with snow and colder temperatures. By Friday, temperatures will drop to the 20s.

A low-pressure system located near the southern tip of Nevada is expected to move east across the Midwest, with the center remaining south of Wisconsin. This puts the state on the cold side of the system, increasing the likelihood of accumulating snowfall from early Thursday through Thursday night.

Whether or not there will be higher snowfall totals in southeast Wisconsin is dependent on the low-pressure system’s path. A northerly track could result in more widespread higher snowfall, while a southerly track could lower the chances of higher snowfall in northern counties, especially Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, and Beaver Dam, where there will be a sharp cutoff on the edge of the system.

The forecast models for snowfall accumulation amounts are uncertain due to the difficulty in pinpointing where the heaviest snow will fall and where the cutoff to almost no snow will be. Instead of providing exact snowfall amounts, the percentage or probability of receiving a range of snow is more useful. Most central and southern areas have a 60% to 70%+ chance of seeing at least four inches of snow.

A messy commute is expected on Thursday due to accumulating snowfall, which will be composed of light flakes and have a moisture content of around 0.5″. With a liquid to snow ratio of 12:1, an estimated 4-6″ of snow could accumulate for many locations. Strong northeasterly winds could gust between 25-40mph during this event, causing blowing or drifting snow and poor visibility for driving.

While snow is expected to melt over the weekend due to high temperatures reaching the 40s, roads may still be impacted during the Thursday event.